Opening Day Isn’t Until Monday Which Means It’s Time To Get Rich Off Some Reds Prop Bets

The Reds left Goodyear, Arizona today on a blisteringly hot 6 game winning streak. No word on whether or not that will carry over to the regular season remains to be seen, especially with an uncertain roster and half the pitching staff already on the rocks. But the fine folks at Bovada have already made some predictions of their own, so take a break from whatever work you’re doing and start browsing for condos in Miami and high rises in NYC, cause we’re about to get rich, fam.

Joey Votto Over/Under .290 BA in the 2016 Regular Season     

Often times I feel bad for Joey Votto because he plays on a shitty, small market team in the Midwest which doesn’t get him nearly recognition he deserves, both from a national and local audiences alike. Having said that, I’m glad whoever inked this line hasn’t seen Joey hit a baseball because JV will ABSOLUTELY have a better batting average than .290 this year. Last year JV hit .315 on his way to a record setting, MVP caliber season and has shown no signs of slowing down this spring. Barring the complete and total mental collapse I discussed the other day, I don’t see any reason why Joey can’t bat well over .300 this season. I can’t responsibly condone gambling more money than you actually have on one particular bet, but if you were going to do that, all I’m saying is this bet would be the one you’d want to make.

Joey Votto Over/Under 23.5 Total HR’s in the 2016 Regular Season      

Everyone knows Joey has as much natural power as anyone in the game, however no one knows what Joey’s approach at the plate is gonna look like. Some days he’ll go up there looking to put a ball into Newport, other days he’ll go up there looking to slap a single or two to left. I want to take the over here, but JV’s approach at this point in his career is more about quality AB’s, getting on base, and scoring runs than the sheer power we saw back in ’10. I’d hammer the over, but don’t be surprised if JV’s home run total doesn’t win you the big bucks.

Joey Votto Over/Under 72.5 Total RBI’s in the 2016 Regular Season    

Same idea here as the home run total. Joey Votto must be a big fan of Billy Bean and his Moneyball philosophy, because at this point in his career the walks, OBP, and OPS jump out at you more than the traditional power numbers. In fact, Joey’s biggest bugaboo amongst the fans *cough* Marty *cough* is his inability to drive in runs like he did in his MVP season. I’d love to see Joey drive in 90 or 100+ runs this season, but the truth is if you take the over here you might be flirting with danger.

Brandon Phillips Over/Under .280 BA in the 2016 Regular Season

Initially I was prepared to pen a “Thanks for the free money, bitch” letter to the fine folks at Bovada, but then I realized Brandon Phillips hit .294 last year? Not sure how I missed that but if you had asked me, I would have told you somewhere in the neighborhood of .270. B Phil is going to be a wildcard this year. On one hand, I could see him capitalizing on his success from last year and using those trade rumors as motivation to come out and prove he’s still got it at this stage in his career. On the other hand, I could totally envision him not wanting to be here and a season filled with lots of injuries, poor body language, and sub-par statistics. Gun to my head, I’ll take the under. It’s close though. I’m thinking like .275.

Brandon Phillips Over/Under 12.5 Total HR’s in the 2016 Regular Season  

Much like Joey’s batting average, B Phil’s home run total is another mortal lock. One thing I’ve always loved about Brandon is his ability to change his approach based off of where he hits in the lineup. When B Phil is near the top of the order, you’ll see him be a little more selective. When he’s in the middle, you’ll see him open up the strike zone a little in an effort to drive in more runs. BP isn’t the 30/30 guy he once was, but no matter where he ends up batting for the majority of the season, I expect Brandon to have way more than 12.5 dingers.

Brandon Phillips Over/Under 69.5 Total RBI’s in the 2016 Regular Season

Same thing here as the HR total. When BP bats leadoff and has to work the count, up goes the average and down go the power numbers. When BP bats cleanup and swings at breaking balls in the dirt, he’s a legit threat for another 100 RBI season. I think BP will end up batting 4th again for most of the year because we won’t have anyone else that can bat 4th–  Again.

Over.

Jay Bruce Over/Under 25.5 Total HR’s in the 2016 Regular Season, Over/Under 82.5 Total RBI’s in the 2016 Regular Season      

As much as I feel like the Bovada folks haven’t watched Joey Votto play one inning of baseball, I get a sneaky sense that Jay Bruce might be their favorite player of all time. Sprinkle in a .225 average and those 25.5 home runs and 82.5 RBI’s are just about your stereotypical Jay Bruce season. Apparently Jay is having a big spring and expectations are high for about the tenth straight year, but I’m staying away from these bets at all costs. I like Jay Bruce and if we’re gonna be any sort of competitive we need Jay to exceed his projected numbers, but Bruce has let me down far to many times to go throwing big money around.

Billy Hamilton Over/Under 55.5 Total Stolen Bases in the 2016 Regular Season

Oh Billy, Billy, Billy. OH BILLY, BILLY, BILLY. Get on base for me. Let’s face it, Billy’s OBP can’t get much worse than it was last year and he was still able to steal 57 bases, which would obviously be good enough to cover here. Assuming Billy Hamilton can stay healthy and produce just enough to NOT get benched in what looks like a do or die year, Billy should hit that 56 SB mark. Say what you want about his swing or where he bats in the order, but there’s no denying that cat can flat out run.

 

About Q-Ball

Owner, operator Queencitybeerleague.com. AKA The Commish. Q-Ball is that asshole at the office who refuses to brew a fresh pot of coffee. Not because he doesn't want to, he's just too embarrassed to admit that he doesn't know how.
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